Geothermal heat pumps are a form of renewable heating technology which is capable of substituting the conventional heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems currently in use. These pumps utilize the ground as a heat source and sink to provide heating, cooling, and hot water to buildings. Geothermal heat pumps can be broadly segmented as open loop and closed loop systems. Closed loop systems involve the installation of ground loops, which circulate a refrigerant fluid for heat transfer. Open loop systems on the other hand utilize ground water reserves to pump water directly into the heat pump unit for heat transfer. Closed loop systems can be further sub-segmented on the basis of loop configuration as vertical loops, horizontal loops, and pond/lake systems. The major end-users of geothermal heat pumps currently include residential and commercial customers. Both these end-users have been further sub-segmented on the basis of installation type as new building systems and retrofit systems.
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Geothermal heat pumps are a relatively expensive technology which requires significantly higher upfront investment. The cost of the heat pump units is only a fraction of the overall expenditure incurred for installing a geothermal heat pump system. Other major expenditures include cost of hiring installers and excavation of ground loops. Installation of horizontal loops involves excavation of trenches while installation of vertical loops involves drilling of boreholes into the ground. Owing to the significantly lower space required for installation of vertical ground loops, they are being highly preferred across the world. With average home sizes gradually reducing in the past decade, the available land area for each house is also expected to decrease. This is likely to boost the installation volumes of vertical loop geothermal heat pump systems. Generally, vertical loops are preferred for retrofit system installations since very limited earthmoving requirements are associated with the installation of such loops. A large number of new building systems are still expected to install horizontal closed loops throughout the forecast period. Horizontal loops are cheaper to install as compared to vertical loops where the soil type has a major impact on the overall cost of borehole drilling.
The residential and commercial sectors are the primary adopters of geothermal heat pumps globally. Commercial geothermal heat pump systems are generally of much larger capacities than individual residential systems. Commercial customers are likely to emerge as the most attractive end-user segment of geothermal heat pumps within the forecast period. The primary reason for this is that commercial customers are relative desensitized to the high upfront expenditures required for geothermal heat pumps. Commercial customers tend to put higher weightage on the incremental energy savings throughout the life of the heat pump unit rather than the short-term payback period. Whether to opt for a new building system or a retrofit system can have major implications on the payback periods for a geothermal heat pump system. On considering the U.S. Federal Tax Credit scheme, a residential customer opting for a new building system would have a much shorter payback period as compared to one opting for a retrofit system. This sentiment is likely to inhibit the adoption of retrofit geothermal heat pump systems by the residential sector globally in the future.
Europe is currently the largest market for geothermal heat pumps globally, followed by North America and Asia Pacific in that order. The U.S. is the largest market in North America followed by Canada which has high potential for geothermal heating systems. There are four large markets for geothermal heat pumps in Europe: Sweden, Germany, France, and Switzerland. These four countries are mature markets for geothermal heat pumps and have been exhibiting declining annual capacity additions in the recent past. Poland, Greece, the U.K., and the Czech Republic are some of the nations which are likely to emerge as attractive markets for geothermal heat pumps in the future. China accounts for nearly all of the installed capacity of geothermal heat pumps in Asia Pacific. China has exhibited significant growth rates in annual installations over the past decade, which peaked in 2008 during the Beijing Olympic Games. South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia are likely to emerge as highly attractive markets for geothermal heat pumps in Asia Pacific within the forecast period.
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